Send In The Rendition Team

So how are all you Philles fans enjoying your team this spring? I find it agonizing to sit through three innings. I simply can't deal with more than that. I cannot watch a team that cannot hit. I don't care if it's the Phillies and they win 95 games somehow. I can't watch them if they cannot hit.

I suspect that I am far from an outlier on this topic.

I would love to be a fly-on-the-wall around John S. Middleton while he's watching Phillies games. I'm sure Mr. Middleton is also watching the TV ratings. The Phillies TV contract will be coming up for renewal in a few more years and Mr. Middleton and the Buck family will be looking for the huge dollars, and those dollars exist in abundance. The Texas Rangers just began a new deal that pays them Eighty million dollars every year. If the Rangers in that backward market are worth $80mil per year than the Phillies should have no trouble getting a hundred million. “Should” being the key word.

To get TV ratings in this market the Phillies need to keep people interested. They don't even have Harry and Richie anymore, and with each passing 1-2-3-go-the-Phils inning I'd like to blast that green puppet with both barrels of a twelve gauge and watch the feathers fly, and so would you.

So that leaves the team. Are you excited about watching Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino swing a bat? Those two might be the Phils 2nd and 3rd best hitters. Basically the offense is hoping that Rollins and Victorino get on base (which they aren't that good at doing) and then watch Hunter Pence try to drive them in. This is a recipe for finishing at the bottom of the game in scoring and generating TV ratings lower than reruns of Gilligan's Island.

And why is the lineup in such sad shape? It's not as if the problem is unexpected. The Phillies run production has been in a state of free-fall since the end of the 2007 season. Every fan of the team is aware of the problem. So why hasn't anything been done about it? Why am I still looking at Pete Orr and John Mayberry Jr., and before his injury Michael Martinez? These three guys are not MLB players. This is not my opinion, it is a certifiable statistical fact. So why are they here?

There are two possible answers to this and their names are Dave $$$ Montgomery and $$$_Jr., otherwise known as Ruben Amaro Jr.

Frankly, to me these guys look scared. They can't bear the thought of missing the playoffs. The best way to make the playoffs is to have the best pitching staff in baseball, and the Phillies probably have that. However, if your goal is to win the World Series then your team has to be able to hit. This was painfully evident against the Cardinals last fall. So painful I won't even go into it further.

So why did a Tigers team that could hit a lot better than the Phillies sign Prince Fielder to a huge contract while the Phillies brought back John Mayberry Jr., Pete Orr and Michael Martinez? Clearly the Tigers want to win the World Series. And maybe they want some TV ratings that outdraw nick@nite.

It seems to me that the $$$ twosome are operating under the belief that as long as the Phillies make that opening round of the playoffs their considerable paychecks are safe. This perception must change or the Phillies could languish for many years. In fact they could be looking at a disaster down the road in terms of both rating$ and wins and losses. This is due to the egregious mismanagement of the Phillies farm system which is detailed below in a previous post. This destruction of the Phillies farm system has not ceased. They are continuing with their polices of not paying top talent and boycotting any Scott Boras represented player no matter how good or how great the Phillies need.

Team	2011 Bonuses
Pirates	$17,005,700
Nationals	$15,002,100
Royals	$14,066,000
Cubs	$11,994,550
Diamondbacks	$11,930,000
Rays	$11,482,900
Mariners	$11,330,500
Padres	$11,020,600
Blue Jays	$10,996,500
Red Sox	$10,978,700
Orioles	$8,432,100
Indians	$8,225,000
Brewers	$7,509,300
Mets	$6,782,500
Reds	$6,378,900
Yankees	$6,324,500
Giants	$6,266,000
Twins	$5,902,300
Astros	$5,545,800
Phillies	$4,689,800
Cardinals	$4,554,000
Rangers	$4,193,000
Marlins	$4,135,000
Rockies	$3,967,900
Braves	$3,735,700
Dodgers	$3,509,300
Angels	$3,318,100
Athletics	$3,067,300
Tigers	$2,878,700
White Sox	$2,786,300
Average	$7,600,302

Last year the Phillies used their first pick in the draft -1st round supplemental pick– to take not the best position player available in the entire draft -Jeff Bell who was still available– but some guy named Larry Greene. Mr. Greene seems ticketed for firstbase. Not a big problem given Howard's decline and length of contract. If Greene develops into a desirable 1B prospect the Phils can simply move Howard's contract that will be in its last year or two. However, Jeff Bell is a big-time five-tool outfielder whose hit-tool is outstanding, and he's also a switch-hitter.

Greene is a long-shot, Jeff Bell is as close to a sure thing as is possible for a high school position player. So why didn't the Phillies draft Jeff Bell?

Scott Boras.

As detailed in a past post on the destruction of the Phillies farm system, boycotting Scott Boras is a major part of that carnage. David $$$ Montgomery simply does not care about the farm system. David $$$ Montgomery is on a mission to destroy Scott Boras, the most successful agent in baseball history. David Montgomery has had zero effect upon the success or failure of Scott Boras, and Dave $$$ Montgomery never will have the slightest effect upon Scott Boras, but still $$$ persists in his insane, hate filled quest to assault Scott Boras no matter how negatively the effects upon the Phillies organization.

And the effects have been extremely negative.

Team	2007-11 Bonuses
Pirates	$52,057,400
Nationals	$51,084,600
Royals	$45,204,900
Red Sox	$44,097,250
Orioles	$41,219,700
Rays	$40,582,200
Blue Jays	$38,429,600
Mariners	$36,055,900
Padres	$35,768,100
Diamondbacks	$35,261,000
Yankees	$33,699,000
Indians	$33,179,300
Giants	$33,162,400
Cubs	$32,407,100
Rangers	$31,384,300
Tigers	$31,269,200
Brewers	$29,351,500
Reds	$27,668,850
Cardinals	$26,818,200
Athletics	$25,210,500
Astros	$25,162,630
Mets	$24,919,300
Rockies	$24,503,900
Dodgers	$23,608,050
Twins	$23,603,698
Phillies	$22,802,700
Angels	$22,694,400
Braves	$22,011,050
Marlins	$21,711,050
White Sox	$18,327,450
Average	$31,775,174

In the draft tables included here you can see where the Phillies rank in their draft spending since 2007. It's not a pretty sight. I've highlighted the Red Sox, Yankees, Braves and Marlins for different reasons. The first two are the Phillies select peer group. There are three elite teams in terms of finances in MLB and the Phillies are one of them. Then we have the Phillies two division “rivals” in the Braves and Marlins. The Braves were once the king of division titles, but have not taken that title since 2005. The Marlins haven't made it into the playoffs or even sniffed a Wildcard since 2003.

Is it really a coincidence that the Braves and Marlins have fallen so far while spending so little on the draft? Do you see any other perennial powerhouse teams in the chart who happen to be in the bottom of draft spending? Even the Yankees with their massive payroll which has been that way for the last several decades spend above the average on the draft, and their spending is understated because the Yankees are one of the biggest spenders in the international market where the Phillies are again one of the most frugal. And yes the Red Sox also greatly outspend the Phillies in the international market so do an upward projection for them also (not that it's needed).

The consequence of this lack of spending is evident in the Phillies aging, dull, simply incompetent lineup. I cringe every time I hear the Phillies referred to as “The Phightens”. What kind of fight can a team put up with a lineup as punch-less as the Phillies?

So have a look at this picture. That is Condoleezza Rice standing next to Phillies owner John $ Middleton (the four billion dollar man). I imagine both David Montgomery and Ruben Amaro Jr. live in expensive houses, possibly with private security. However, when the Rendition Team comes calling late into the night the private security won't help at all. John S. Middleton probably has a big fancy private jet he can loan to the CIA for the task, but if not they can call Red Sox owner Philip Morse and borrow his jet again. I'm not a big fan of the Rendition team, but this is an opportunity for them to redeem themselves.

The Jayson Werth Vacuum

Everyone loves the Phillies 2011 rotation -everyone who doesn't have to face it- but the lineup is a completely different story. Anyone who watched the Phillies a lot last year knew the Phillies needed another big right-hand(RH) bat. Instead, Dave $$$ Montgomery pushed Jayson Werth into the arms of Scott Boras, who then made Mr. Werth rich beyond his wildest dreams (guess who is representing about to be a free agent Ryan Madson?).

Now we find out that for the third year in a row Chase Utley is looking at a lot of D.L. Time. And with a painful injury like the patella tendon how good is Utley going to be when he is in the game? This is important as Utley has hit left-hand (LH) pitching much better than right-handers the past two years.

The pink elephant in the room of this discussion is of course Ryan Howard, who sports a Pujols like career OPS of 1.038 against RH pitchers, and a Polanco like .766 against LH pitchers.

So what is the solution? A trade! The Phillies need at least one big RH bat.

So who might be available and who should the Phillies go after?

David Wright.

The Wilpons are in the middle of a major league meltdown in New York. We've known for years that they were incompetent and probably nuts too (see Jackie “The Dodger” Robinson memorial in center field at Citi Field). Now we know that they were hooked up to Bernie Madoff. They are being sued for a billion dollars and probably should have been indicted for fraud by the Feds (FBI is too busy chasing big time crooks for uploading DVD screeners and mp3 files).

Rumors in New York have the Wilpons ready to do a full sell off of talent and go into a full rebuild mode. Probably not a bad idea since that team is at present unfixable without taking the payroll to $180 million next year and then making it climb from there. Since the Mets spending on the draft is as tight as Dave $$$ Montgomery, but with far less success, their farm system is in poor shape. That means they can't trade for the talent they would need to form the team into a contender. There is little to no chance for them to do so purely through the free agent market.

So what does David Wright have to offer the Phils? How about a career 1.041 OPS against LH pitching?

That made you whistle didn't it?

Wright is signed for three more seasons counting 2011. He's 28 years old this season.

And what of Polanco? Well, he plays 2B, and Utley frequently does not. Polanco can also play LF. He can pinch hit. What he can't do is produce a 1.041 OPS against LH pitching. The past two seasons Polanco's OPS against lefties is .668 (2010) and .738 (2009).

What might it take to get Wright? A lot. Figure either Domonic Brown or Jonathan Singleton plus two of the Phils best pitching prospects -whoever that may be at the time of the trade- and possibly taking a contract off the Mets hands like K-Rod and his father-in-law.

A 1.041 OPS against LH pitching from the 3B position is not cheap!

Option number two.

Matt Kemp.

Not a Philly kind of guy. Recent column about him from Jerry Crasnick makes him out not to be a baseball guy either. This is good as well as bad. He won't cost nearly as much as David Wright. He's also more likely to be available before the trade deadline.

One big reason Kemp could be available is he had a real bad year in 2010, yet his OPS against lefties was .809. The year before it was a David Wright like 1.045.

Kemp can pretty well play any outfield position. He could basically replace Jayson Werth. The Phillies snatched both Werth and Victorino from the Dodgers, it may be time to go for the third grab.

Here's a deal where Matt Rizzotti could come into play. The Dodgers are not real high on James Loney anymore either. His salary has increased a great deal, his power has not.

Rizzotti, one of the Phils A-ball “toolsy” outfielders, a good pitching prospect and a 2^nd rate arm. In other words the Phils would still be alive for a David Wright trade either during this season or this winter.

Option three.

Evan Longoria.

This one isn't going to happen this season. As many know Longoria is signed to probably the sweetest contract in baseball. Longoria knows that better than you or anyone else save for the owners of the Tampa Rays.

And Evan Longoria is not happy about this situation, and a situation it is. Longoria has already made his first public noises about his contract (asking for some fat ($) years to be added on), and that follows a dugout fight with B. J. Upton last year on TV.

Let's look at this contract to see just how bad it is.

Evan Longoria will be paid two million dollars this year. Next year he gets a boost to $4.5 million. So this year and next season together Longoria will get about as much as Polanco gets this year. Then the following year Longoria gets Polanco's salary. Yeah, less than $13 million for the next three years of Longoria.

So you're saying, “but he got security signing that deal”.

Did he? We just went through the security. If Longoria suddenly became a permanently D.L. located player that Tampa wanted to unload we just covered all but $4.5 million of the guaranteed portion of his contract, what he has been paid already over the past two seasons and the $3 million buyout.

Now let's look at what Tampa gets.

Assuming Longoria continues to be the the #1 stud at 3B in all of MLB, Tampa has three options on him for 2014, 15 and 16 for $7.5m, $11m and -finally!- $11.5 million. Three option years for what A-Rod gets paid this year. For eight years of Longoria Tampa has to pay him what A-Rod gets in one and half seasons playing for the Yankees.

Would you play that out?

Longoria was 22 years old when he was talked into signing this deal by an agent who must surely have a fat bank account in the Cayman Islands courtesy of Tampa Rays owner Stuart Sternberg, who got filthy rich at Goldman Sachs.

Longoria's contract has to be the worst ever signed by a player. Just look at the $30 million that a certifiable nut like Milton Bradley received from the Cubs. Longoria's contract is a disgrace, a throwback to the pre-free agent days when players were treated like slaves while the owners made all the money.

The clock is ticking on this one and it won't tick longer than the Winter meetings this year. If Longoria went into Stuart Sternberg's box at the ballpark with a baseball bat and knocked him off his chair, grabbed Stuart Sternberg by the collar, showed him the barrel of the bat and yelled “Are you going to renegotiate my contract, yes or no!” he couldn't lose. Jail time would be minimal, embarrassment for Stuart Sternberg would be huge when taken to trial, and no team would boycott Longoria.

Price to make the trade happen? Brown, Singleton and Sebastian Valle. And the two best pitching prospects. Basically the farm.

The best 3B in baseball won't come cheap.

UPDATE: April 7, 2011

Evan Longoria has gone on the D.L. with an "oblique strain". This is one to watch. Sometimes this type of injury can incapacitate a player for months. The amount of time on the D.L. is often related to how happy or unhappy that player is with his current team.     

Option four.

Hunter Pence.

The question with Pence really is: Does he solve the problem? Pence's OPS against LH pitching last year was .820. For his career it's .842. He'll be 28 years old in 2011.

If you think the answer is yes, well, Ed Wade is the GM, Brett Wallace looks like a 1B failure, and Wade loves “Major League ready” players in a trade. So Matt Rizzotti, one of the good pitching prospects and another pitcher in the second tier of prospects would do it. Heck, Wade might take less than that.

But does that solve the problem?